The 3D future

I wonder how many senior executives at Panasonic read the first wave of reviews from the preview screenings of James Cameron’s sci-fi epic Avatar and thought: ‘Oh crap…’ ?

The movie has long been touted as a trailblazer for the next generation of 3D entertainment. It’s the first mega-budget live-action film to employ cutting-edge 3D cinema tech, and Panasonic has committed to using it as the launch vehicle for its 3D Blu-ray roll-out, expected mid-2010.

Anticipation for the film has been so great that Fox recently took the unprecedented step of screening 15 minutes of footage free of charge at cinemas in key locations worldwide, presumably to generate a tsunami of positive word-of-mouth. Unfortunately that plan may have back-fired. Most viewers who caught the previews seem to have come away somewhat under whelmed. The CG spectacular has been called a curious cross between Aliens and eco kiddie ‘toon FernGully: The Last Rainforest…

Now while I don’t subscribe to this view (I’ve only seen the trailer and think it looks pretty darn sweet), for Avatar to stumble at the box-office could prove devastating for the introduction of 3D Blu-ray. Speaking at the official announcement to herald Panasonic’s cross-promotion with Fox, GM Masayuki Kozuka declared: ‘We want to get global interest rolling. For people to want to watch 3D at home, the movie has to be a blockbuster.’ In short, everyone needs Avatar to be as big as Cameron’s Titanic - and not to sink. But those looming icebergs of skepticism suddenly look a lot bigger after the screenings than they did before.
Not that such negative comment will derail the 3D Blu-ray bandwagon from rolling. The first 3D TVs from Panasonic will be heavily promoted with Avatar visuals and 3D road shows featuring 3D Blu-ray presentations around the movie’s Blu-ray release are also planned.

Panasonic’s chief technology officer Eisuke Tsuyuzaki, charged with mobilizing both hardware and software industries behind the format, recently told me that he expects a 3D BD standard to be ratified as early as September (’It could be an interesting month…’), with licensing details completed by December.

Personally, I continue to be conflicted by the prospect of 3D. My enthusiasm rises and falls depending who I’m talking to. Tsuyuzaki is such an enthusiastic advocate that I find myself totally sold on his vision of the future whenever we meet. He is convinced that this is not so much a gimmick as a pivotal change in the evolution of consumer electronics. ‘I’m not saying that 2D is dead,’ he told me. ‘There will still be a lot of 2D. Probably the transition from 2D to 3D will take five to seven years; if you look at any major transition in consumer electronics it takes probably seven years. More recently, with digital technology, it’s a shorter time period than seven years. My feeling is it’s getting shorter. This is the risk: if we don’t do it now, everyone is going to go in different directions and it will not be successful.’

He reasons that 3D hi-def will succeed because people will find it immersive. ‘It’s like 7.1 audio. Why do you need two more speakers? Because it’s subtle, it’s better. One could argue that audio is already providing that immersive experience. Well now the picture is catching up.’

While Avatar is destined to be the 3D poster boy for BD, the 3D Blu-ray system could launch with a 100-strong catalogue 3D Blu-ray discs! That tantalizing nugget was revealed by Panasonic’s US EVP Bob Perry. He made the prediction during an event to announce his company’s alliance with Fox to co-promote James Cameron’s epic. Significantly, all 3D Blu-ray discs will play back on existing BD players, but deliver only 2D 1080p.

The unknown player in the 3D game remains Sky. The satcaster has already announced a 3D channel for 2010, and has shown a variety of programming  made in the format. Sky has a got a great track record with broadcast innovations and rarely gets it wrong. The big difference though is that Sky’s 3D proposition is not hi-def. Sure it uses the sky+HD platform, but only because it can deliver two-picture channels offering 540 lines of resolution per eye. It remains to be seen if Sky’s initiative will help of hinder Blu-ray. Subscribers may conclude that (a) it’s good enough thereby removing any incentive to buy a new BD player, or (b) decide that it’s an inferior viewing experience to 2D HD, and so dampen the whole market.

Frankly, I have no idea how this is going to play out. But it’s fascinating watching from the sidelines.

Steve May is Senior Editor of industry fave Home Cinema Choice, and oversees Future Publishing’s extensive range of AV titles, including What Plasma & LCD TV and What Video & TV.